Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 21.818560 26.165035 30.933108 36.523539 42.869164 49.818950 57.975810
2025-09-21 15.724542 21.512275 28.492484 37.403996 48.344070 61.199656 77.301706
2025-09-28 11.193295 17.164696 24.964595 35.628280 49.534831 66.753266 89.351238
2025-10-05 9.201250 15.496412 24.262145 36.896907 54.135193 76.305285 106.382531
2025-10-12 7.632673 14.034063 23.485672 37.764295 58.021958 84.926812 122.447075
2025-10-19 6.381264 12.764404 22.722839 38.427096 61.498637 93.016162 138.025683
2025-10-26 5.459082 11.822585 22.269063 39.392540 65.335567 101.652417 154.580892
2025-11-02 4.443891 10.500353 21.002244 38.928611 66.960618 107.183329 167.006330
2025-11-09 3.732809 9.577963 20.240648 39.120350 69.482117 113.997607 181.375032
2025-11-16 3.076943 8.612504 19.253611 38.804161 71.129734 119.533714 194.047377
2025-11-23 2.448252 7.546317 17.918784 37.734378 71.455197 123.048404 203.843880
2025-11-30 2.152277 7.156379 17.792118 38.716073 75.089542 131.624705 221.264240
2025-12-07 1.709578 6.326104 16.747100 38.076081 76.215429 136.730782 234.238403
2025-12-14 1.460665 5.927034 16.532400 38.954908 79.973070 146.134476 254.102975
2025-12-21 1.071759 4.987184 14.988311 37.119964 78.897957 147.809790 262.211167
2025-12-28 0.940469 4.781674 15.053732 38.429377 83.398888 158.569997 284.631782
2026-01-04 0.806314 4.514829 14.927644 39.324550 87.182070 168.275355 305.670365
2026-01-11 0.682862 4.233515 14.715909 40.008491 90.594152 177.466482 326.138890
2026-01-18 0.589725 4.027469 14.658789 41.004582 94.620498 187.800097 348.688459
2026-01-25 0.462669 3.609203 13.961515 40.525947 95.810929 193.363247 363.708610
2026-02-01 0.377768 3.329411 13.588939 40.723769 98.287796 201.178453 382.555791
2026-02-08 0.295800 3.004421 13.018114 40.397545 99.698177 207.168824 398.544198
2026-02-15 0.215843 2.615239 12.162172 39.293676 99.469957 210.250337 409.776214